draft-paper

--- name: draft-paper description: Draft sections of the sewage-house-prices academic paper. Handles section drafting for the Overleaf LaTeX manuscript, notation protocol, anti-hedging, and humanizer pass. This skill should be used when asked to "draft the paper", "write up the results", "write the intro", or draft any section of the manuscript. argument-hint: "[section: intro | background | motivating-evidence | instrument | research-question | results | conclusion | abstract | appendix | full] [optional notes]" allowed-tools: ["Read", "Grep", "Glob", "Write", "Edit", "Agent"] --- # Draft Paper Draft a section (or full draft) of the "Sewage in Our Waters" academic paper on the causal impact of sewage spills on house prices and rents in England. **Input:** `$ARGUMENTS` — section name optionally followed by specific instructions or notes. --- ## Project-Specific Context ### Paper Structure The manuscript lives in `docs/overleaf/` with this structure: - `_main.tex` — Master document (KOMA-Script `scrartcl`, APA biblatex, `libertinus` font) - `01_introduction.tex` — Introduction - `02_background_context.tex` — UK sewage policy and institutional background - `03_motivating_evidence.tex` — Descriptive evidence and stylised facts - `04_hydraulics_instrument.tex` — Hydraulic capacity instrument - `05_research_question.tex` — Identification strategy and empirical specification - `100_appendix_descriptives.tex` — Appendix: descriptive statistics - `101_appendix_results.tex` — Appendix: supplementary results - `102_appendix_dry_spills.tex` — Appendix: dry spill analysis - `103_appendix_data.tex` — Appendix: data documentation - `glossary.tex` — Glossary of terms - `refs.bib` — Bibliography (APA style via `biblatex`) ### Generated Output - `output/tables/*.tex` — Regression tables (modelsummary → LaTeX with tabularray) - `output/figures/` — Figures (maps, event studies, scatter plots) - `book/` — Quarto website with exploratory analysis (`.qmd` files) ### Econometric Approaches The paper uses multiple identification strategies: 1. **Hedonic regressions** — Cross-sectional: spill count/hours (continuous + bins) × prior/full period, with LSOA FE 2. **Repeat sales** — Within-property variation (Palmquist 1982 approach) 3. **Long difference** — 250m grid-level changes, weighted/unweighted × all/exposed grids 4. **News/media DiD** — Google Trends and LexisNexis media coverage as treatment 5. **Upstream/downstream** — Directional spillover via river network topology 6. **Dry spills** — Spills occurring without rainfall as identification variation ### Key Variables and Notation - Outcome: `log(price)` for sales, `log(rent)` for rentals - Treatment: `spill_count`, `spill_hrs`, `spill_count_daily_avg`, `spill_hrs_daily_avg` - Geography: `n_spill_sites` within radius, `min_dist` / `mean_dist` to nearest site - Radii: 250m, 500m, 1000m, 2000m, 5000m, 10000m - Fixed effects: LSOA (`lsoa`), MSOA (`msoa`), year-quarter - Standard errors: heteroskedasticity-robust (`vcov = "hetero"`) via `fixest::feols()` ### LaTeX Conventions - Citations: `\textcite{}` for textual, `\parencite{}` for parenthetical (APA biblatex) - Tables: `tabularray` format with `booktabs`, `[H]` float placement - Equations: numbered with `\label{eq:...}` --- ## Workflow ### Step 1: Context Gathering Before drafting: 1. Read the existing section file in `docs/overleaf/` (if it exists) 2. Read `_main.tex` to understand document structure and preamble 3. Scan `output/tables/` for available regression output 4. Scan `output/figures/` for available figures 5. Check `refs.bib` for available citations 6. Read relevant `.qmd` files in `book/` for analysis context and results interpretation 7. Read relevant analysis scripts in `scripts/R/09_analysis/` for methodology details ### Step 2: Section Routing Based on `$ARGUMENTS`: - **`intro`**: Draft `01_introduction.tex` - **`background`**: Draft `02_background_context.tex` - **`motivating-evidence`**: Draft `03_motivating_evidence.tex` - **`instrument`**: Draft `04_hydraulics_instrument.tex` - **`research-question`**: Draft `05_research_question.tex` - **`results`**: Draft results section(s) from regression output - **`conclusion`**: Draft conclusion - **`abstract`**: Draft abstract (requires other sections to exist) - **`appendix`**: Draft or extend appendix sections - **`full`**: Draft all sections in sequence, pausing between for user feedback - **No argument**: Ask which section to draft ### Step 3: Drafting Standards #### Introduction (~1,000-1,500 words) - Hook with UK sewage crisis context → research question → methodology overview → key findings → contribution → road map - Contribution paragraph names specific papers being advanced (environmental disamenity capitalisation, hedonic pricing literature) - Effect sizes with magnitudes and units (percentage impact on house prices per additional spill) #### Background & Context (~800-1,200 words) - UK privatised water industry structure - EDM monitoring requirements and data availability (2021+) - Scale of the sewage spill problem - Policy and regulatory responses #### Empirical Strategy (~800-1,200 words) - Identification assumption stated formally - Estimating equation displayed and numbered - Each approach (hedonic, repeat sales, long diff) with clear specification - Threats to identification addressed (sorting, omitted variables, measurement error) #### Results (~800-1,500 words per approach) - Main specification with economic interpretation - Effect sizes in meaningful terms (£ impact, percentage change) - Robustness across radii, time periods, and specifications - Heterogeneity results #### Conclusion (~500-700 words) - Restate headline effect sizes - Policy implications for water regulation - Limitations and future work (rental market, long-run effects) ### Step 4: Humanizer Pass Apply automatically as final pass: - Strip AI writing patterns (see `/humanizer` skill for full 24-pattern checklist) - Preserve formal academic structure where genuinely needed - Maintain citation density and technical vocabulary ### Step 5: Quality Self-Check Before presenting the draft: - [ ] Every displayed equation is numbered (`\label{eq:...}`) - [ ] All `\textcite{}` / `\parencite{}` keys exist in `refs.bib` - [ ] Effect sizes stated with units and magnitudes - [ ] No banned hedging phrases ("interestingly", "it is worth noting") - [ ] Notation consistent with project conventions (LSOA, MSOA, radius distances) - [ ] All referenced tables/figures actually exist in `output/` - [ ] LaTeX compiles cleanly with the KOMA-Script setup ### Step 6: Present to User Present each section for feedback. Flag: - **TBD:** Where empirical results are needed but not yet available - **VERIFY:** Citations that need user confirmation - **PLACEHOLDER:** Effect sizes awaiting final estimates --- ## Principles - **This is the authors' paper (Balboni & Dhingra), not Claude's.** Match their voice and style from existing sections. - **Never fabricate results.** Use TBD placeholders. Cross-check numbers against `output/tables/`. - **Citations must be verifiable.** Only cite papers confirmed in `refs.bib` or the literature review in `docs/lit_review/`. - **Humanizer is automatic.** Every draft gets de-AI-ified before presentation. - **Match existing conventions.** Read existing `.tex` files first to match style, formatting, and level of formality.